Sunday, February 20, 2011

Aero India-Day 1 Boeing’s Great Expectations:As Passenger Traffic Grows, The NEO Becomes Obsolete

“We never participated in that bid,” Boeing India President Dinesh Keskar said after Airbus snagged an order for 180 A320s from IndiGo, including 150 new-engine-option A320neo Airbus aircraft. The expectation is that Boeing will announce this summer that it will not re-engine the 737, but launch a new successor in the 2015-2017 time frame, entering service between 2020 and 2022.

“This will make [the NEO] obsolete,” Keskar told Show News.

Boeing raised its expectations for airliner sales in India by about 15% (30% by value) this past August, stating that rising wealth in India would lead to more air travel by an emerging middle class. Indian carriers will buy
about 1,150 airplanes for some $130 billion over the next 20 years, Boeing said, having previously forecast 1,000 jets for $100 billion.

“Indian aviation will grow at 15% per year according to our forecast,” Keskar says. “52 million passengers in 2010 are expected to increase to 62 million this year.”

Will consolidation among Indian carriers stifle fleet expansion?
“This is good for both Boeing and Airbus, “ Keskar says. “There is a backlog of 400 to 500 aircraft. We are increasing our production rates. By end of 2017, we will produce ten Boeing 787s a month... It will take years to burn off the backlog of orders.”

“India has had two waves of consolidation. During the first (1997), it helped airlines to reduce costs but not solve the problem of overcapacity. The second wave (2006), however, resulted in balance of supply and

“In the last quarter of 2010, we had a limited shortage (of fleet). We are back to equilibrium – if 15% of planes are added, it is just right.” —Neelam Mathews

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