Thursday, June 16, 2011

Boeing Current Market Outlook Asia-Pacific

Posted by Neelam Mathews

Growing markets

The global economic downturn did not overwhelm the vigor of this region's economies-most were able to sustain growth. Recovery on the global scale and the region's intrinsic economic strength are expected to lead to rapid expansion in the coming years. The region's economy will significantly outpace the world's average growth rate, expanding at a rate of 4.7 percent per year for the next 20 years, with China and India leading the way. The region's share of the world GDP will expand from 27 percent today to 35 percent by 2030.

Rising traffic levels

During the next 20 years, approximately half of the world's air traffic growth will be driven by travel to, from, or within the Asia Pacific region. Total air traffic for the region will grow 6.9 percent per year during the period. Fueled by development of the region's national economies and the increasing accessibility of air transport services, traffic within the region will grow faster than traffic to and from the region. Short-haul flying, including domestic and international travel within the region, will grow 7.2 percent per year.
Air cargo plays a critical role in the region's economy, transporting goods over difficult terrain and vast stretches of ocean. Some of the world's largest and most efficient cargo operators are located in Asia, competing to transport high-value and time-sensitive exports to markets outside the region. Air cargo growth will total 6.3 percent per year during the next 20 years. To service this demand, carriers within the region are expected to take 360 new freighters, with an additional 510 conversions.
To modernize their fleets and meet the growing demand for air transport, Asia Pacific airlines will need 11,450 new airplanes valued at $1.5 trillion over the next 20 years. The number of airplanes in the Asia Pacific fleet will nearly triple, from 4,410 airplanes in 2010 to 13,480 airplanes in 2030.

Liberalization of markets

The structure of the airline industry in Asia Pacific is changing as regulations are liberalized and carriers find innovative ways to expand beyond national boundaries to serve burgeoning demand. The impact of liberalization is particularly dramatic in the case of low-cost airlines, which are stimulating air travel by lowering fares and opening new markets. In order to compete, established airlines are forming low-cost units, further expanding the affordability and availability of air travel. Where market development has outpaced official liberalization of markets, new airlines have been launched as international joint ventures, carrying established travel brands into new markets.

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