Boeing Forecast Says India Will Need 1,150 Aircraft In Next 20 Years

Airframers/Suppliers

Aviation Daily Aug 05 , 2010 , p. 06
Neelam Mathews

Boeing estimates the Indian aviation market will need 1,150 commercial jets valued at about $130 billion over the next 20 years.

Air India’s first Boeing 787 is in final assembly and due for delivery at the end of the first quarter or early second quarter of 2011.

In its current Market Outlook for India, Boeing says the aircraft represent 3.6% of Boeing Commercial Airplanes’ worldwide forecast.

South Asia (India, Pakistan, Nepal, SriLanka, Bhutan, Maldives and Bangladesh) will have the largest passenger growth in the world at 8.4% surpassing China at 7.6%, Boeing says. South America and the Middle East hold close third (7.4%) and fourth (7.1%) positions.

Last year, Boeing had forecast 1,000 deliveries for South Asia. Of the 150 added this year, 50 will be single-aisle models.

The Boeing forecast says Asia-Pacific deliveries will grow 34% in the next 20 years with 21% of that growth contributed by budget airlines. “It is the budget segment that is increasingly getting bigger, especially in India. Next year, there will be even more,” says Dinesh Keskar, president, Boeing India.

India has 334 aircraft based there, with 281 on order for scheduled airlines.

International markets are fragmenting, according to Boeing, with frequencies rising and seat capacity decreasing as more airlines enter the market. The India-international market is seeing tremendous growth. There are more nonstop markets opening, and large cities, such as London, Singapore and Dubai, are seeing increased service.

Boeing has consistently said it is the point-to-point market that will be the future, and demand for the Airbus A380, therefore, is insignificant. The India-U.K. market, for example, was dominated by two carriers 10 years ago with 24 weekly flights carrying 412 passengers each operating from three destinations in India. In May this year, there were six airlines in the sector with 104 weeklies from eight destinations and 297 seats per flight.

Aware that delayed delivery of the 787 has caused inconvenience to Air India because the carrier needs the 220- to 250-seat aircraft to fly to Australia, Europe and Japan, Keskar says, “We are at present focusing on the delivery of the 787, which will be a game changer for Air India.”